Dive Brief:
- Under the latest version of the GOP bill to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) about 23 million Americans would lose coverage, a slight decrease from an earlier version of the bill, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
- The American Health Care Act (AHCA) would also reduce the cumulative federal deficit by $119 billion over the next 10 years.
- The agency also found that premiums for single policyholders buying in the nongroup market would increase by an average of about 20% in 2018 and 5% in 2019.
Dive Insight:
The CBO score is important for procedural reasons, because the GOP’s only hope of passage lies in the budget reconciliation process. That requires only a simple majority for approval, but has rules restricting what can be included. The CBO report released Tuesday indicates that method will be viable.
A score of the previous version of the bill estimated 24 million people would lose coverage, so the new estimate just below that won't change rhetoric. The previous bill was found to likely save $337 billion in federal budget deficits.
The number of people who would lose insurance under the AHCA is a key statistic for lawmakers. Many have faced angry crowds at town halls in their home districts and potential political opponents are using the issue in attack ads. The new score is unlikely to change that.
So that number is likely to play a key part in whether moderate Republicans will vote to approve the AHCA, and the GOP can only manage a few defections if they want to keep the bill alive.
CBO noted that estimates from the law are uncertain because of the many ways hospitals, payers and governments would respond to the legislation. “The array of market regulations that states could implement makes estimating the outcomes especially uncertain,” according to the report.