Citi analyst: Humira biosims will hurt AbbVie sales more than you think
- Citi financial analyst Andrew Baum thinks that pharma industry watchers are severely underestimating the extent to which biosimilars of AbbVie's Humira, the top-selling drug in the world, will eat into that drug's sales.
- FiercePharma reports that Baum thinks that more than a third of AbbVie's Humira market share in the U.S. will be eaten up by biosimilars just three years after they're made available. Humira falls off the U.S. patent cliff in 2016.
- There are currently no biosimilars approved in the U.S., although Novartis generics arm Sandoz has a legal hearing on its biosimilar of Amgen's Neupogen set for March 2 (and may receive approval for the drug in early March). Biosimilars are already available in many other countries.
"At year 3, biosimilars will achieve 36% U.S. market share in Humira patients and 25% in established Humira patients," wrote Baum in a report, adding that European price discounts would be even "steeper due to reference pricing on brand and progressive discounting on biosimilars."
Industry analysts expect that biosimilars will reduce healthcare spending by 20% to 30% by offering generic versions of pricey biologics.