This is the latest installment in a series where BioPharma Dive uses data visualization to recap what’s going on across the industry. Today, we’re looking at how investors reacted to three drug launches featured in quarterly earnings presentations this week.
Novo has struggled mightily to regain its footing after ceding its leadership position in obesity drugs to top rival Eli Lilly. But a key sales figure the Danish drugmaker disclosed this week provided investors with some optimism that better times are ahead.
On Wednesday, Novo revealed that the Wegovy pill — the oral version of the popular obesity medicine bearing the same name — booked 5.39 billion Danish kroner in the third quarter. Equivalent to about $811 million, that figure surpassed the average consensus estimate of 4.96 billion kroner, according to analysts at the firm Jefferies. Overall company sales and profit beat Wall Street’s projections, too.
The news lifted Novo shares by more than 5%, one of its largest single-day gains this year. Perhaps more notably, though, the Wegovy pill’s sales spike came during the same quarter Lilly’s rival offering, Foundayo, underperformed. Lilly’s drug launched a few months after Novo’s, and isn’t as broadly available yet. But its $184 million in third-quarter sales fell short of Wall Street estimates by $44 million and represented the only blemish for an obesity and diabetes drug franchise that otherwise smashed consensus forecasts.
The Wegovy pill “continued to outpace” Foundayo and accounted for around 80% of new-to-brand U.S. prescriptions in the third quarter, said Jamey Millar, the head of Novo’s U.S. operations, on a Wednesday earnings call.
Novo is counting on an upswing in the U.S. and internationally to continue. “I don't foresee why that should completely change,” CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts. “How well we’ve done both in the U.S. and [internationally] does not change just because January comes after December.”
The pill has launched in seven countries so far. Novo expects it to be available in more than 20 by early next year.
Sales of Novo's Wegovy pill took off in the third quarter
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals made history with the 2024 approval of Rezdiffra, the first medication for a liver disease known as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, or “MASH.” Since then, Wall Street has been closely tracking Rezdiffra’s progress, as the drug’s sales trajectory is an important indicator of the demand for MASH drugs. Many investors weren’t convinced Rezdiffra would become a big seller.
New results disclosed this week, though, show that Rezdiffra sales — which got off to a better-than-anticipated start — are still climbing. In its tenth quarter on the market, the drug officially reached “blockbuster” status, meaning its sales eclipsed $1 billion in a calendar year. Rezdiffra generated $431 million for Madrigal between July and September, and $1.1 billion so far in 2026. The quarterly numbers beat consensus projections by more than $20 million and enabled Madrigal to post a profit for the first time.
The results “couldn’t have been better” and “exceeded even elevated investor expectations,” wrote Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Prakhar Agrawal in a Tuesday client note.
Particularly of note, according to Agrawal, is that more patients have started treatment despite competition in MASH from Novo’s Wegovy. That upswing suggests MASH diagnosis and treatment rates — both of which are still low — could be accelerating. There’s “meaningful room for growth,” he added.
Madrigal shares initially spiked before changing course on Tuesday, a shift analysts attributed to a whistleblower lawsuit brought forth by a former employee.
Madrigal's MASH drug Rezdiffra has become a blockbuster
Five months ago, brain drug developer Axsome Therapeutics saw its market value soar past $12 billion. An April Food and Drug Administration approval had just expanded use of its depression drug Auvelity into Alzheimer’s disease, unlocking what Wall Street believed to be a multibillion-dollar market opportunity. Investors piled into the stock, believing Axsome might be a top buyout target in an already active year for biotech company acquisitions.
Yet at least so far, Auvelity hasn’t taken off. Sales grew from about $153 million between January and March to $208 million over the last three months, Axsome reported Monday. On a conference call with analysts, Chief Commercial Officer Ari Maizel noted that there’s “little precedent” for a medicine that, like Auvelity, is used to treat symptoms of “agitation” associated with Alzheimer’s.
“This is still a relatively new and developing market, but we're very encouraged by what we've seen thus far,” Maizel said, citing upticks in prescription totals.
Auvelity sales haven't climbed as quickly as investors had hoped
Investors appear less sure. Since peaking in June, Axsome’s stock price has fallen by more than a third. The pace of drugmaker acquisitions has slowed. And though Auvelity’s latest figures were in line with consensus estimates, the drug’s latest launch is off to a “slower than expected” start, wrote William Blair analyst Myles Minter. A few of his peers at other firms went a step further, trimming their price targets for Axsome shares and projections for Auvelity sales.
“It’s been a very difficult four months” for Axsome, wrote Leerink Partners analyst Marc Goodman. Investors now “seem to have significant pessimism regarding Auvelity trends.”
Still, he and others preached patience. During the third quarter, prescription totals accelerated in adults over 65, who are mostly using Auvelity for Alzheimer’s symptoms, executives said. While the drug’s sales upswing has been gradual, “it’s happening,” Goodman asserted.
