- A new type of diabetes drug could become one of the top-selling drug classes for the metabolic condition by 2022, surpassing aging DPP4 inhibitors, according to a forecast from EP Vantage.
- Led by Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly's Jardiance, sales of SGLT-2 diabetes treatments are predicted to grow rapidly, with the drugs becoming the third top-selling class by 2022.
- Ever since Boehringer and Lilly announced Jardiance significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular (CV)-related death and hospitalization due to heart failure, the outlook for SGLT-2s has improved. And that outlook could brighten further if the FDA decides to add that CV benefit to Jardiance's label, EP Vantage adds.
Boehringer and Lilly raised the bar for the diabetes market as a whole when they announced top-line results from Jardiance's CV study last September. Data from the EMPA-REG trial showed Jardiance reduced CV events associated with diabetes by 14%, along with reducing CV-related deaths by 38%.
The CV data from the trial lifted expectations for the entire SGLT-2 class, which is still only four years old.
Two other SGLT-2 drugs are also being studied for their effect on CV outcomes. Data for Johnson & Johnson's Invokana is expected in 2017 while AstraZeneca's Farxiga will have to wait until 2019, according to EP Vantage.
Both of those drugs were recently slapped with updated warnings from the FDA, however, due to an increased risk of acute kidney injury related to their use.
Jardiance may be set to further outpace its competitors on this front as a recent study showed the drug also reduced the risk of progressive kidney disease.
Sales of Jardiance have yet to take off but EP Vantage forecasts sales of $3.9 billion by 2022. Merck's Januvia (a DPP4 drug) and Novo Nordisk's Victoza (GLP-1) are the only other drugs ranked higher in the forecasts.
An advisory panel for the FDA will meet on June 28 to discuss whether to add Jardiance's cardiovascular benefit to its label. A positive recommendation would likely further boost expectations for both the drug and SGLT-2s as a class.